to bridge the gap between the unfeasible expectation of formal evidence in this space and the reality of common self-medication by those with insomnia, we propose a method for guided self-testing that overcomes certain operational barriers related to inter- and intraindividual sources of phenotypic variability. it is perhaps not surprising that the same trends are observed for natural remedies under the broad category of complementary and alternative medicine (cam). an alphabetical list of herbal remedies is presented in figures 1 and and2,2, with the relevant indications for each according to six sources (“methods” section). a related issue is that the health benefits or indications may be reported differently across traditions, which were differentiated in some of the sources; we do not differentiate here. however, the time horizon and resources required for such testing across even a subset of the remedies listed herein is daunting and seems unlikely to occur even with optimistic funding projections.
for two nights, the only observable proportions are 0, 50, or 100% – also a poor resolution of probability. for any sequence of nights, the maximum likelihood estimate of the true probability of a good night is equal to the observed probability of a good night. this can be adjusted and personalized but is set here for illustration with a bound of ±10% of the goal proportion of good nights. the other authors report no conflicts of interest in this work. the y-axis is the number of nights in a trial of self-testing. in each case, the gray bars indicate a buffer around the goal proportion that might be considered acceptably close; this assumed a 10% buffer on either side of the goal, but for four- and seven-night tests, the resolution does not allow thus, and hence the buffer extends to the next nearest histogram bin.
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